# SMC and RSS conferences

Over the next two weeks, I’ll be attending the SMC workshop in Uppsala, Sweden, and the annual conference of the Royal Statistical Society in Glasgow, UK. Abstracts for my presentations are below. Hope to see you there!

In other news, All 51 discussions (including mine) of “Beyond subjective and objective in statistics” by Gelman & Hennig (JRSS A, 2017) are now available online. Plenty of thoughtful commentary on the philosophy of science and statistics in particular.

## Bayesian modelling and computation for surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy

SMC 2017 workshop, **Aug. 31 – Sept. 1**, 2017

Norrlands Nation, Uppsala Universitet

Raman spectroscopy can be used to identify molecules by the characteristic scattering of light from a laser. Each Raman-active dye label has a unique spectral signature, comprised by the locations and amplitudes of the peaks. The presence of a large, nonuniform background presents a major challenge to analysis of these spectra. We introduce a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to separate the observed spectrum into a series of peaks plus a smoothly-varying baseline, corrupted by additive white noise. The peaks are modelled as Lorentzian, Gaussian or Voigt functions, while the baseline is estimated using a penalised cubic spline. Our model-based approach accounts for differences in resolution and experimental conditions. We incorporate prior information to improve identifiability and regularise the solution. By utilising this representation in a Bayesian functional regression, we can quantify the relationship between molecular concentration and peak intensity, resulting in an improved estimate of the limit of detection. The posterior distribution can be incrementally updated as more data becomes available, resulting in a scalable algorithm that is robust to local maxima. These methods have been implemented as an R package, using RcppEigen and OpenMP.

## Approximate posterior inference for Markov random fields with discrete states

Contributed Session 6.5: “Big Data” (Methods & Theory)

2:30pm, **Wednesday Sept. 6**

Conference Room 6/7, Technology & Innovation Centre, University of Strathclyde

There are many approaches to Bayesian computation with intractable likelihoods, including the exchange algorithm and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). A serious drawback of these algorithms is that they do not scale well for models with a large state space. Markov random fields, such as the Ising/Potts model and exponential random graph model (ERGM), are particularly challenging because the number of discrete variables increases linearly with the size of the image or graph. The likelihood of these models cannot be computed directly, due to the presence of an intractable normalising constant. In this context, it is necessary to employ algorithms that provide a suitable compromise between accuracy and computational cost.

Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) is a class of methods that approximate the likelihood function using a surrogate model. This model can be trained using a pre-computation step, utilising massively parallel hardware to simulate auxiliary variables. We review various types of surrogate model that can be used in BIL. In the case of the Potts model, we introduce a parametric approximation to the score function that incorporates its known properties, such as heteroskedasticity and critical temperature. We demonstrate this method on 2D satellite remote sensing and 3D computed tomography (CT) images. We achieve a hundredfold improvement in the elapsed runtime, compared to the exchange algorithm or ABC. Our algorithm has been implemented in the R package “bayesImageS,” which is available from CRAN.